10/31/26 Saturday 3:00 am
Concerns:
- Models underforecasted precipitation totals last night and after midnight. Many areas got well over an inch. I have seen totals as high as 1.85″ already. The atmosphere is saturated, and so are our soils. This was supposed to be the weak wave; the heavy stuff should arrive tomorrow.
- Overnight models have either stayed the same or are showing higher precipitation totals than yesterday.
- NWS is still convinced snow levels will mitigate runoff and downstream danger. Looking at the webcams at Purg and Wolf Creek. and an underwhelming amount of snow has accumulated. Current temp at Wolf Creek is 33. Models indicated overnight lows to be colder at these elevations than what is verifying.
- As I said yesterday, snow levels will rise and stay high for most of this event, even if the cold front does not stall (like it usually does). Current indications show snow levels dropping below 10,000 feet late Sunday night (after the bulk of the precipitation has fallen).
- The “River People” (CBRFC) have not updated their forecasts in nearly 24 hours- frustrating; hopefully they will be more on top of this tomorrow.
- I will be posting often today; stay tuned, hopefully for better news, but I can’t find any right now.