Published 2/14/21 Sunday at 7:45 am

Although the parsimonious cold air has not really come into play as I had hoped, this has still been a pretty decent storm for most. A lot of beneficial moisture! Snow should wind down in most areas by noon but may linger in some areas until late this afternoon. Generally, 1 to 4 inches additional could accumulate. Telluride and Ouray could do a little better, we’ll see.

There is no model agreement on the next two storms, the first of which should start affecting the forecast area tomorrow afternoon. More on this in my afternoon Update.

Wolf Creek was already at 22 inches, 9 additional inches at Purgatory, and several reports of a foot in many locations at or above 7400 feet. As I type this I am getting reports of close to 20 inches in many of the locations such as upper Forest Lakes, Tween and Vallecito at or above 7,800.

Bring on the reports so I can share them in my next update. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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Congratulations, we have made it through the warmest time of day! So far my expectations have been exceeded and I am anxious to see how the rest of this pans out.

The afternoon high-resolution model was very similar to this morning’s run. The NWS pointed this out in their forecast discussion which led to them upgrading the Durango area’s Winter Weather Advisory to a Winter Storm Warning for 4 to 8 inches. They also issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Cortez, Dolores, and Mancos for 2 to 5 inches. I would not be surprised if Dolores and Mancos exceeded those amounts.

There were a couple of my earlier forecasts that may be too low.

Mid-elevation areas including Durango West 1&2, Lake Durango, Rafter J, Long Hollow, Edgemont, Forest Lakes, Durango Ridge Ranch, Durango Hills below 7,700 feet:  8 to 14 inches with slightly lower amounts for Shenandoah and Trappers Crossing below 7,400 feet.  I would not be surprised to see up to 18 inches in some of these areas. Especially, Dwest(s), Forest Lakes, Durango Hills, and DRR. I also forgot to mention Falls Creek over 7,500 feet.

Mayday, Purgatory,  Durango Hills at or above 7,700, Tween Lakes, Trew Creek, Los Ranchitos, Lemon, Vallecito above 7,700 feet:  10 to 16 inches. Higher amounts are possible in Mayday, Lemon, and Vallecito.  Up to 20 inches are possible in some of these locations.

Wolf Creek could see 18 to 24+.

Here is the latest afternoon run of the high-resolution NAM 3km model. These totals are from 11 am today through late Sunday night.

I started this post a little earlier, but I just went out to measure at 4:30. DWest2 at 7,450′ has had 4 1/2 inches so far and moderate snow is falling. If you like to measure snow, remember to clear early and often, especially during this warm portion of the storm before the cooler temps filter in late tonight.

I look forward to your reports. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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Published Saturday 2/13/21 at 11:30 am

Moisture has already started streaming into the forecast area resulting in light snow and flurries, to a mist in the lower elevations and light rain around Cortez.

The high-resolution NAM 3km model has been steadily increasing its event totals for the last 18 hours. This morning, the trend continued. If this high-resolution model is correct, my totals will be too low in the mid-elevations and the mountains.

Based on the latest model runs here are my forecasts. I am trying to be cautious with these totals, these are very conservative.  I weighted the Euro very high, with its lower totals, when I put together these forecasts together.

These are grouped by snowfall totals, not geographically.

Montrose, Cortez, Marvel, Aztec:  2 to 4 inches after the rain changes over to snow this evening.

Durango, Bayfield, Ignacio, Mancos, Dolores, Breen, Ridgway, Ouray:   4 to 8 inches after the rain-snow mix changes over to snow late this afternoon or early evening. Higher accumulations are possible in areas at or just above 7,000 feet.

Pagosa Springs, and elevated areas along the HWY 160 corridor in Western Archuleta County:  7 to 10 inches.

Telluride, Rico and Silverton in town:  8 to 12 inches.

Mid-elevation areas including Durango West 1&2, Lake Durango, Rafter J, Long Hollow, Edgemont, Forest Lakes, Durango Ridge Ranch, Durango Hills below 7,700 feet:  8 to 14 inches with slightly lower amounts for Shenandoah and Trappers Crossing below 7,400 feet.

Mayday, Purgatory,  Durango Hills at or above 7,700, Tween Lakes, Trew Creek, Los Ranchitos, Lemon, Vallecito above 7,700 feet:  10 to 16 inches. Higher amounts are possible in Mayday, Lemon, and Vallecito.

Wolf Creek:  12 to 20.

Here is the latest high-resolution 3km model run for total precipitation. I enlarged it as much as I could without distorting the image.

As you see this model is sniffing out some higher totals in the mid and high-elevation areas.

The medium-term models are slightly less reliable the day that the storm arrives because they are lower resolution. This just means they spread higher totals over the lower elevations. One of the best examples of this is Cortez. These models always struggle with Cortez because of the terrain around the area south and southwest of town.

The Canadian is the lowest resolution, next is the GFS, then the Euro with what would I refer to as medium resolution.

Canadian

GFS

Euro

The models are indicating the possibility of a lull very late tonight or in the middle of the night, then snow will continue throughout the day on Sunday.

Next Update Sunday morning, unless something comes up before then. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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Published Saturday 2/13/21 at 7 am

I will sort through all of the models in detail in my next post, but here is a brief summary. The models are not necessarily slowing the storm down, however, they are delaying the onset of precipitation into the lower elevations, which greatly increases the chances of more snow than rain for areas above 6,500 feet. That doesn’t mean it will start as snow everywhere, but when it does change over, it will stay all snow.

The other encouraging thing this morning is that the US models were wrong with the overnight temperature forecast by 7 to 9 degrees (too warm). The overnight Euro has been showing snow levels right at 6,500 feet this afternoon and it nailed the overnight low. This is doesn’t lock in the snow but it is a good sign.

Numerous new Warning and Advisories were issued overnight. I think this was a prudent move. They expanded the highlights to include low and mid-elevations and increased mountain totals.

COZ022-131830-
/O.EXB.KGJT.WW.Y.0013.210214T0000Z-210215T0600Z/
ANIMAS RIVER BASIN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF DURANGO, BAYFIELD, AND IGNACIO
330 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2021

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY…

* WHAT…SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES. EXPECT HIGHER AMOUNTS HEADING TOWARDS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

* WHERE…ANIMAS RIVER BASIN.

* WHEN…FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY.

* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

COZ023-131830-
/O.EXB.KGJT.WS.W.0003.210214T0000Z-210215T0600Z/
SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF PAGOSA SPRINGS
330 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2021

…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
11 PM MST SUNDAY…

* WHAT…HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 10 INCHES. EXPECT HEAVIER AMOUNTS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

* WHERE…SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN.

* WHEN…FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY.

* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

COZ019-131830-
/O.CON.KGJT.WS.W.0003.210213T1800Z-210215T0600Z/
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF SILVERTON, RICO, AND HESPERUS
330 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2021

…WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY…

* WHAT…HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE TIMBERLINE. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40 MPH.

* WHERE…SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.

* WHEN…FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW RATES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
355 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2021

COZ068-131900-
/O.CON.KPUB.WS.W.0002.210214T0000Z-210215T0000Z/
(Wolf Creek) EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET-
355 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2021

…WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY…

* WHAT…HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
FEET. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45 MPH.

* WHERE…EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET.

* WHEN…FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY.

* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT OVER WOLF CREEK PASS

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

COZ018-131830-
/O.CON.KGJT.WW.Y.0013.210213T1800Z-210215T0600Z/
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TELLURIDE, OURAY, AND LAKE CITY
330 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2021

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS
MORNING TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY…

* WHAT…SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 15
INCHES. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40 MPH.

* WHERE…NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.

* WHEN…FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW RATES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I will try to have the new Update out by 1 pm at the latest. I am very encouraged by what I have seen, and I am looking forward to the release of the next suite of model runs. Thanks for following and supporting the page!

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Published Friday 2/12/21 at 12:45 pm

I really miss the “easy” storms. The ones that have no issues with elevation and temperature. The ones where I don’t sound like a broken record putting out a lot of caveats. Unfortunately, that will not be the case.

Models have been pretty consistent over the last week filtering in cold air. That is, until a couple of days ago when the Euro went rogue and started suggesting that the lower elevations were going to be warm for a couple or more hours before changing over to snow. Despite that, the models still show a lot of beneficial moisture on the way, which is what we all want!

Because we still have at least 24 hours before the precipitation begins filtering into the area, I will share the maps with you, but I won’t dig in too deeply until tomorrow. If you are rooting for good snow below 7,300 feet, you also need to root for the storm to slow down and arrive later on Saturday, preferably after dark. At the moment most models are currently predicting that the precipitation should start between noon and 3 pm.

People ask me how I come up with the elevations for rain /snow/mix. While there is not a specific model parameter that shows the projected elevations, there is a parameter that forecasts atmospheric pressure, and with that, I can calculate the elevations. When the weather slows down in the spring I will probably do a post on how that works.

Here are the precipitation totals from the latest model runs.

GFS

 

Canadian

 

And the Euro, which trended up slightly with its latest run.

Here is another model that I usually consult but I have had some issues with its accuracy. Not to be confused with the WPC (Weather Prediction Center) blended model, this is the NDFD (National Digital Forecast Database) model which is a unique blend from the National Weather Service. Because it uses data from the NWS offices, it sometimes misses because we are not close to a full data-gathering NWS office. The graphics are beautiful and I wish all of the other models I have access to had this output.

I hope to be able to get two updates out tomorrow before the precipitation starts. The first will cover the overnight and the high-resolution morning models, as well as any updated Warnings and Advisories. The second will be to cover the latest runs from the big three models that I always cover around noon.

Keep your fingers crossed for a late-arriving storm. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

 

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Publish Friday 2/12/21 at 8:15 am

My comments on the Winter Storm Watch are at the end of the post.

Current Conditions

The snow started a little later than expected. Temps are warmer than forecasted. The lower elevations in many cases are above freezing already. There is a negatively tilted shortwave trough to our west. The stationary front separating us from the Arctic air is now west of Denver and the Front Range and is visible on the surface map below.

It appears the cold air has not yet pushed over the Continental Divide. I say “yet” because this is the furthest west this boundary has pushed.

This early in the day, and with the trough negatively tilted and to our west, it is too early to completely abandon the forecast. Clearly, the lower elevations are in many cases already above freezing. My forecast was 0-2 inches. My mid-elevation forecast was 2 to 4 inches. A look outside my window tells me that a few areas should hit that minimum range.  Telluride is getting light snow, it won’t pick up until later after the wind shifts, so it’s too early to worry there.  My minimum for Purgatory was 4 inches, things will have to pick up there to hit that. Wolf Creek has the strongest southwest flow right now, and a lot can happen quickly up there. If you have been reading the last few days, you know I was not expecting much out of this.

Winter Storm Watch

An early issued Winter Storm Watch loosely worded always concerns me. I call them blanket Winter Storm Watches because they lack specificity.

COZ019-121815-
/O.NEW.KGJT.WS.A.0001.210213T1800Z-210215T0600Z/
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF SILVERTON, RICO, AND HESPERUS
310 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2021

…WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING…

* WHAT…HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 18 INCHES POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

* WHERE…SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.

* WHEN…FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE.

They should clean this up by mid-afternoon. The forecaster that issued this said in his forecast discussion that he “decided to pick the low hanging fruit and issue a
Watch for the southern San Juans.”

The model runs have been very consistent with the weekend storm. I will post again this afternoon with the latest model runs and see if we get a clearer picture of what to expect and where. Snow reports would be great this morning (from areas that are actually receiving snow).

Next Update Friday afternoon, thanks for following and supporting the page!

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Published Thursday 2/11/21 at 1:45 pm

Snow will begin falling in most areas by 5 am tomorrow morning. Snow will change to light rain or mist in the lower elevations midday and the snow level should rise to around 7,200 feet or slightly higher by early afternoon. Precipitation should wind down by late afternoon or early evening in the lower elevations, mid-elevations just a little later. Snow will wind down in most mountain locations by late Friday night but may persist until early Saturday at Wolf Creek. This is not going to be a big event. However, it will moisten up or prime the atmosphere for the heavier snow event Saturday night and Sunday.

There are still some discrepancies on total precipitation amounts for Saturday and Sunday between the models, but before we are done I expect numerous Winter Storm Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings to be issued (as early as Friday) for the weekend. I don’t want to get too deep into the weekend yet. I will have 24 to 36 hours of future model runs to evaluate. I don’t expect things to pick up before noon to 3 pm on Saturday.

As I mentioned, snow should start tomorrow morning early, then we will be walking a bit of a tight rope on temps throughout the day Friday.

Here are the latest model precipitation forecasts for the first system.

GFS

Canadian

Euro

Based on these model runs here is my forecast for the first system only.

Lower elevations 0 to 2 inches before melting.

Mid-elevations including Ouray and Pagosa 2 to 4 inches with higher amounts above 7,800 feet.

Purgatory, Lemon, Mayday 4 to 6 inches.

Telluride, and 5 to 7 inches,

Wolf Creek 5 to 9 inches.

If necessary I will amend these amounts Friday morning.

As I said, I am not going to get too deep with the second system, but here are the additional totals from the latest model runs for Saturday through Monday morning.

Canadian

Euro

From late Saturday through Sunday there is a good possibility that very cold air will mix in and dramatically raise the snow to liquid ratios resulting in some impressive totals by Monday morning. The models are back and forth right now on how impressive the third system will be, which should be coming in late Monday or early Tuesday.

I don’t expect winter highlights to be issued for the weekend yet this afternoon, but if they do post some type of blanket watch I will post it later this afternoon.

Next Update Friday morning, thanks for following and supporting the site.

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Published Wednesday 2/10/21 at 12:25 pm

Occasional snow showers that are still falling in the higher elevations should wrap up by this evening with very little additional accumulation. Thursday will be a transitional day before three systems move in. The models are in agreement on timing, but differ on how much snow will fall during each event over the 4 to 5 day period.

Friday the first system moves in during the morning and should wrap up by Saturday morning. Saturday evening/night another system will move in and snow should continue throughout the day on Sunday before wrapping up late Sunday night. The third system should come in Monday night and wrap up later on Tuesday. At the moment, the period of heaviest snow should occur late Saturday through late Sunday. The Friday system and Monday night system don’t (yet) look like they are going to be that big of a deal.

It is only Wednesday, so we still have time for some changes that may affect the timing of these systems. The models are in decent agreement right now (again), but any one of these systems could slow down before it arrives. The Euro is usually the first to sniff out storms stalling before they arrive.

For today, I am still going to go with the “right for the wrong reason” approach and show the multi-day totals. Tomorrow, I will try to be more specific with the Friday timing and first system total. Again, Friday does not look like that big of a deal, so don’t be too disappointed tomorrow when you see that. I will also post the Saturday night through Wednesday morning additional totals. I will do the same thing on Saturday.

Here are the multi-day event totals. First are the liquid precipitation event totals. The snow totals will follow.

GFS

Canadian

Euro

GFS snow

Canadian snow

Euro snow

My confidence with these systems is growing with each model run. Run to run consistency and consistency among models are the most important factors I look at for storms or multi-storm events. I am very pleased, so far, with what I am seeing.

Next Update Friday early afternoon. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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Published Wednesday 2/10/21 at 5:45 am

Yesterday I mentioned I was tempted to increase my totals based on the latest (at that time) Euro run. I combed through the other models and just didn’t see enough support for that to happen.

So what happened? A little shortwave trough in Southwest Utah set up in just the right place and Purgatory had perfect flow for just enough time to dump 5 inches of fresh snow as of 5 am. Telluride is just getting going and should continue snowing throughout the day. Wolf Creek is still getting light to moderate snow, they usually report around 6:45 am.  For some of the northern and central mountain locations that were expecting some decent snow, this turned into a bust.

The overnight models still disagree about the amount of snow for Friday. They are still mixed as far as the stops and starts of the upcoming 5 day period beginning Friday morning. They all expect decent to impressive amounts over that time period.

Next Update later today.

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Published Tuesday 2/9/21 at 12:45 pm

Not a lot has changed since my last post. I was leaning towards slightly boosting the totals I had through yesterday. This was based on the brand new Euro run, but, I am just not seeing enough from the other models to support that decision. Temperatures are not going to be particularly cold enough to increase the snow to liquid ratios, so I am going to leave everything where I had it yesterday. If you missed it this is what I had.

Telluride, Ouray, Silverton (town), Rico 3 to 6 inches.

Purgatory and  Wolf Creek 2 to 4 inches.

Mid-elevations 0 to 2 inches.

Lower elevations may get a dusting before melting.

The next batch of snow will come in on Friday through Saturday according to the GFS, Euro, and Canadian models. The Canadian brings a heavier batch of snow on Saturday evening, while the GFS and Euro wait until Sunday.

To attempt to time the starts and stops of the different systems between Friday and next Wednesday does not make a lot of sense just yet. But I am pleased with the consensus I see over the 5 day period. Here are the current precipitation totals between Friday morning the 12th and next Wednesday morning the 17th.

GFS

Canadian

Euro

If you missed my commentary a couple of weeks ago, I refer to this as a setup where the models may be right for the wrong reasons. They agree on a snowy period of 5 days. They don’t exactly agree on when specifically it is all going to happen, but they mostly agree on significant 5-day event totals. At the moment it looks like the heaviest precipitation will fall while it is cold enough for snow in all locations.

Here are the preliminary 5-day snow totals (Friday morning through Wednesday morning) based on a 10 to 1 snow to liquid ratio. If the temperature forecasts are correct, the ratios should be much higher than that in the mountains.

GFS

Euro

Canadian

Next Update Wednesday, thanks for following and supporting the site!

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