Published Sunday at 7:15 am

In the last 24 hours, the weather models have finally shown strong similarities in the track of a storm that should make it into our area on Thursday. The Canadian and Euro were on board early, the GFS capitulated finally in its last few runs over the last 18 hours.

This storm is a classic closed circulation low-pressure system, it is much different than what we have seen in the last 10 days. The models show it coming onshore Wednesday night over Southern California then moving east-northeast leaving snow over Northern Arizona and Southern Utah before (hopefully) making its way into our forecast area on Thursday. This is a warm core system so some low elevation areas will see some rain and maybe a mix before the snow. Any and all precipitation type will be great to have.

Here is the early look at liquid precipitation totals for this storm

Canadian

Euro

German

GFS

Model consensus is one of the most important things forecasters look for when they determine their confidence level in a storm. This is the best thing I have seen in 10 days. I got an email from a follower last night saying she had just washed her car. If you are new, some of the more hardcore weather followers believe that such sacrificial rituals help bring on storms. I know my vehicle needs a wash, so what the heck…

Next Update Monday, thanks for following and supporting the site!

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Published 2/24/21 Wednesday at 12:40 pm

I have not gone anywhere, nor have I been ill. There just has not been a lot of things to talk about. Nothing has changed too much in the last four days, the models are still out of sync beyond a couple of days out.

Overnight, a weak storm system will make its way towards the forecast area. As it moves east Thursday it will tap into a little more moisture and Wolf Creek may benefit from this. The medium and low-resolution models are struggling with this, but the high-resolution NAM 3km model has shown this additional moisture for Wolf Creek in its last 3 model runs.  A similar thing happened Saturday, most models were discounting the totals for Telluride and Ouray, but the high-resolution model picked up on it.

So based on what I am seeing from that model this morning, 2 to 4 inches of snow could fall by late Thursday for Telluride and Ouray, with a dusting to 2 inches for Silverton, Purgatory, and Rico.  If this model is correct, 5 to 9 inches could accumulate at Wolf Creek with most of it falling during the day on Thursday.

Here is that high-resolution model run I am using for this forecast.

A few other areas may get a dusting, especially above 7,400 feet. There are several other opportunities for light snow over the next week. The models are all handling things differently but the next best chance for light snow will be Saturday night.

I plan to post over the next few days. I am not sure when exactly, but I think the models will come into better agreement over the next couple of days regarding the weekend. That will give me something to discuss. I look forward to snow reports from the areas that get snow. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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Published Saturday 2/20/21 at 9 am.

A small disturbance will move south this afternoon resulting in snow falling before and after the front passes through. Telluride, Ouray, and Red Mountain Pass will see the biggest impacts. Light snow could spillover to Silverton, Rico,  Purgatory, Mayday, and Wolf Creek with a dusting to 2 inches possible.

 

Here is the latest advisory:

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
304 AM MST SAT FEB 20 2021

COZ018-202100-
/O.EXB.KGJT.WW.Y.0015.210220T2100Z-210221T1200Z/
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TELLURIDE, OURAY, AND LAKE CITY
304 AM MST SAT FEB 20 2021

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST SUNDAY…

* WHAT…SNOW EXPECTED, HEAVY AT TIMES. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 MPH.

* WHERE…NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.

* WHEN…FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST SUNDAY.

* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT.

This is a fairly aggressive advisory. If it were me I would scale it back just slightly. Some areas may indeed get 10 inches or more but it likely will fall in uninhabited areas. Montrose will get a dusting, Ridgway will get a couple of inches. Telluride and Ouray will likely be in the 3 to 6-inch range.

Here is the latest high-resolution NAM 3km.

You can see a couple of bullseyes in blue.

Looking ahead, the models are (predictably) out of sync. The Euro is bringing in a storm for Wednesday and Thursday. A respectable storm at that. The GFS and Canadian don’t see it. Usually, the Canadian comes around as time goes on. The GFS takes longer. The Euro has been showing this feature since Thursday night. It could be a couple of days before the models get in sync, it will be interesting to see who wins.

I was asked if I thought we were done with snow in the lower elevations, the answer is no. I think we are going to evolve back into an active period of weather as we head into March.

Next Update Sunday. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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Thursday 2/18/21 at 1:10 pm

Not for a while anyway. The next small system will affect the northern portion of the forecast area, favoring the Northwest San Juans on Saturday night. At the moment, the models are forecasting sub-advisory amounts.

Currently, the GFS is showing the highest totals with a potential Gorge event possible. Here is the latest GFS.

Right now, the future looks pretty quiet on the individual model runs. These are referred to as the deterministic model runs. The other type of model runs are the mean runs for the model family. They are called ensemble models. The Euro Ensemble has 52 model members,  the GFS Ensemble has 22 model members and the Canadian Ensemble has 20 model members.

Here is the Euro ensemble run showing anomalously high or low pressure between Monday 2/22 through Monday 3/1.

Euro ensemble run 2/18/21 12z

The warmer colors of yellow, orange and red tones represent high pressure, where storms are less likely to develop. The cooler colors of blue, green, and gray represent below normal pressure, where storms are likely to occur. Ensemble models, in my opinion, are not a great tool for short-term forecasts in our area but are very good at indicating long-term patterns.

Next Update Saturday, thanks for following and supporting the site.

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Published Wednesday 2/17/21 11:45 am

A small disturbance will drift down into Colorado later today. The flow will not be favorable for most areas but a few areas will see light accumulations.

At the moment it looks like 2 to 4 inches will fall in Telluride with 1 to 3 inches for Silverton and Ouray. Wolf Creek and Purgatory could get 1 to 2 inches in spillover precipitation from this disturbance. Flurries may fall in the mid-elevations and a dusting of snow could accumulate down to Glacier, Lemon, and Vallecito.

Telluride had a big day yesterday and ended up with 17 inches for the event. Wolf Creek added a couple of inches last night.

There is a chance of snow for Saturday night and the next decent chance for most of us will be around Thursday, February 25th.

I expect the models to be compromised in the coming days. We are looking at a large Continental-sized pattern change over the next several days. That is good news for folks across the Midwest, Great Lakes, the South, and especially Texas, where they will finally warm back up and hopefully be able to restore power and water to the multi-millions there affected by the Polar Vortex.

The bad news for weather fans is that a pattern shift of this magnitude will affect weather model performance as the models try to figure out how the future pattern will evolve. The two most likely options are that either we end up in a more zonal pattern, with the jet stream basically going across the middle of the Continental US (Conus), or we end up with a trough over the western half of the Conus. Either of those solutions could be beneficial for our area, but it will be difficult to put too much faith into model solutions until this pattern change occurs.

Next Update Thursday. Thanks for following and supporting the site.

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Published Tuesday 2/16/21 at 10:45 am

My concerns that I was too low for the snow totals out west and down south were warranted. My concerns for Purgatory and Wolf Creek being too high were warranted as well.

The problem? I drank the Koolaid, I followed the guidance from the National Weather Service’s blended NDFD model. Monday morning, I mentioned that I was having a difficult time justifying the Advisory for the Southwest San Juans. Then I saw the NDFD showing much higher amounts for those areas. I used that model for Purgatory, Wolf Creek, and the mid-elevations of La Plata, County.  Clearly, I was wishcasting instead of forecasting.

Telluride had already received 7 inches as of early this morning, it is likely they have a lot more on the way! 8 to 12 inches additional should fall between this morning and Thursday morning. I am basing that off the NAM3km, the GFS, and the Euro.

For the rest of us, expect an extended lull in the precipitation. Scattered light snow showers will be possible with another round of light snow likely Wednesday evening.

Here are the latest snow totals through Tuesday morning:

Up to 2 inches:  Durango, Vallecito,Tamarron, Gem Village

Up to 3 inches:  Hermosa Valley, Forest Lakes, Aspen Trails @8,000 feet

4 inches:  Marvel, Silverton, Lemon, Trappers Crossing, Durango West

5 to 6 inches:  Mancos, North and South Mancos, Cortez, Mc Elmo Canyon, Bondad

7.5 inches:  1 mile north of Farmington at 7,000 feet

As you can see, the main energy of the storm made it into Montezuma County, then dropped southwest into Northern New Mexico.

It appears a couple of systems will move in for the weekend, but my confidence is low for the systems coming far enough south to affect most of the forecast area. I will be keeping an eye on the situation as always.

Thanks for the reports, if you find yourself under a heavier than expected snow shower throughout the day let me know.

My next Update will be Wednesday afternoon. Hopefully, we will be able to coax a couple of more inches of snow for Purgatory, Wolf Creek, and the lower and mid-elevations. Telluride and Ouray should be in great shape over the next couple of days.

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Sorry email subscribers, I inadvertently left off Telluride, where I expect 8 to 12 total inches by Thursday.

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Published Monday 2/15/21 at 3:20 pm

For reasons I will explain, I am going to forecast totals through Thursday morning. While the bulk of the snow in the lower elevations may fall by tomorrow afternoon, there is still a chance that occasional snow showers separated by lulls will continue through Wednesday night in some areas.

The lower and mid-levels in most cases have been under a slight inversion layer with the clouds holding in the cool temperatures. This was while the higher elevations saw some sunshine and blue skies until late morning. As of 1:45 pm, it appears the clouds are just starting to move into the Wolf Creek area and the North Valley south of Purgatory appears to have popped out of the inversion layer.

This storm is not potent, it is actually a bit sad and disorganized and the models are struggling with where to take it. The early portion of the storm should favor the southern portion of the forecast area. The late phase of the storm should favor the northern San Juans.  There is less agreement on what happens from late Tuesday until Thursday morning. The storm energy is eventually going to move south of the southern portion of the forecast area, but the track it takes in getting there may leave a northwesterly flow in place in the northern San Juans with a west-southwest flow in place for the southern portions of the forecast area. It also looks like this disorganized storm could leave some leftovers in Utah that will come through on Wednesday. Not your normal set-up.

It is always tough to get fired up for smaller events after a big storm, but if everything comes together we may get more snow than some of the forecasts are showing.

Here are the forecast maps through Thursday morning.

GFS

Euro

NAM high-resolution 3km

WPC high-resolution 2.5km

NDFD high-resolution 2.5km

Based on these model runs here are my forecasts:

Aztec:  2 to 4 inches

Cortez, Mancos, Dolores, Durango, Ignacio, Bayfield, Western Archuleta County, Pagosa Springs:  3 to 5 inches with higher amounts possible in areas at or around 7,000 feet near Durango.

Mid-elevations:  4 to 6 inches, with higher amounts above 7,800 feet.

Mayday, Purgatory, Ouray, Silverton, Wolf Creek:  6 to 10 inches.

Telluride 8 to 12 inches.

At the moment, my biggest concerns are that I am too high for Purgatory, Wolf Creek, and Pagosa, and too low for Cortez, Dolores, and Aztec.

Thanks for the reports, try to give me your event totals rather than additional totals. So for the next few days, I look forward to hearing what you get starting tonight.

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Published Monday 2/15/21 at 9 am

This morning is an example of “sometimes it just snows”. Upper-level temperatures are favorable for snow and there is still ample moisture overhead. As a result, light flurries continue in many areas.

The snow reports were a big hit, so I plan to do that with every storm. Yesterday when I posted them, I said that since it was still snowing that many of the totals would increase. By the time I put out the post, my total in DWest2 had gone up. I hadn’t measured since around 7 am because I was clearing snow and writing the Update. Snow continued at the resorts throughout the day as well. Telluride ended up with 9 inches, Purgatory ended up with an event total of 14 inches and Wolf Creek climbed to 29 inches.  When I originally made my forecast, I said that the totals were through Monday morning. When I post my forecast this afternoon, it will be from tonight, Monday evening, through Wednesday morning.

The models are still not yet all on board with the storm track, the wind direction, and temperatures for this event. In fact, there is a 9-degree temperature spread in the models for overnight temperatures.  The models all agree on all snow for the event, but the current temperature spread could affect totals by 50% or more.

This is still looking mostly like a 3 to 6-inch event for most areas, with some upside surprises of 8 or more inches. Telluride and the northern San Juans won’t be favored until Tuesday for heavier snow, they will likely end up with the highest totals in the forecast area.

I don’t anticipate anything happening earlier than 6 pm, the best energy for southern areas will kick in around midnight.

This system also is the type that ends up with leftovers which could keep light snow going through the day on Wednesday.

My next Update should be up by 3 or 4 pm this afternoon.

There are already advisories in place, I am going to wait to post them until this afternoon in case they tweak them or upgrade them.

They are currently at 2 to 4 inches for the lower elevations, with 6 to 9 for higher elevations.

Next Update late Monday afternoon, thanks for following and supporting the site!

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Published Sunday 2/14/21 at Noon

I will discuss the next short wave trough heading into our area at the end of this post. First, let’s jump into the snow reports. I just realized it started snowing again here. Obviously, some of the reports are old, some are new because I am adding and amending totals as I write this.

I sorted these by reported totals to make it easier (for me).

3 to 4 inches:  Aztec and Arboles

5 inches:  Cortez and Silverton

6 to 6.5 inches:  Marvel and Montrose

7 inches:  3 miles north of the Durango airport

7.5 inches:  Rico

8 inches:  North of Mancos

8.5 inches:  Durango in town and Skyridge, Bayfield in town

9 inches:  South of Mancos at the Base of Weber Mountain, Purgatory

10 inches:  North side of Hermosa, Alpine Shadows, Cherry Creek Mountain Ranch

10.5 inches:  Timberline midway up, Oxford and Lightner Creek

11 inches:  Falls Creek and Gem Village

11.5 inches:  Top of Timberline

12 inches:  Turtle Lake, Three Springs, Tecolote, Bottom of Durango Hills, Celadon, Rockwood, Edgemont Ranch, Rafter J, South of Mancos Hill

13 inches:  DurangoWest 2, Twin Creek (Pagosa)

13.5 inches:  Tamarron/Glacier

14 inches:  Edgemont Highlands

15 inches:  Horsegulch, Pine River Ranch north of Bayfield, CR502&228 intersection

16 inches:  Upper portion of Deer Valley (east of Bayfield), NW of Hatcher Lake (Pagosa)

17 inches:  Lower Forest Lakes

18 inches:  Forest Lakes (midway up), Los Ranchitos

19.5 inches:  North end of Vallecito

21.5 inches:  Top of Aspen Trails at 8,000 feet

22.25 inches:  Top of Forest Lakes at 8,000 feet

Some of the heaviest 24-hour totals we have seen in the mid and lower elevations this season! The storm clearly favored the eastern areas of La Plata County. It also looks like some energy drifted just far enough south to limit the lift needed for Purgatory to do well. Rarely do Mancos and Bayfield give Purgatory a run for the money!

The models have a lot to work out on the storm track of this system. What I can tell you is that at the moment, it looks like it is going to be a 2 to 5-inch event for most. Oddly enough, the track that I am seeing on the Euro shows the most snow to the North around Telluride and to the South along the New Mexico border. The good news is this will be a high ratio event, with snow levels starting at around 5,000 feet then falling Monday night.

The GFS and Canadian are showing slightly more precipitation than the Euro. Out of all of the other morning model runs from yesterday morning, The Euro performed worst.

Next Update Monday afternoon, thanks for all of the great reports, and thanks for following and supporting the site!

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