Friday Morning Update

On By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment
7/29/22 Friday 6:40 am
As expected, widespread showers and nice thunderstorms developed yesterday lasting well into the night. Expect a repeat performance today. If the sun makes an appearance early expect thunderstorms to develop more quickly. A quick look around at networked weather stations shows anywhere from 0.5o inches to nearly 2.00 inches of rain has fallen throughout the forecast area in the last 24 hours.
As a reminder, the radar in Grand Junction is still down. The radar soundings that you see on any particular app you are using are not showing accurate depictions of what is actually occurring throughout our forecast area. These images show what is happening very high up in the atmosphere.
They are being detected from Denver area radar with a little help from Pueblo and ABQ. Because the storms have been strong and the precipitation has been heavy the images have looked correct, but there are many gaps in what is actually happening. It is similar to looking at a sentence with most of the letters missing.
I will do another update this afternoon with a more detailed look at Saturday as well as conditions for the Telluride 100.
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On By durangoweatherguy1 Comment
7/28/22 Thursday 6:30 am
Yesterday was relatively quiet during the day in most areas. The exception was San Miguel and portions of Ouray Counties where storms set up. Then Wednesday evening storms set up mostly east of 550 and a few isolated areas west of Forest Lakes really got hit with over 2 inches of rain. That was an anomaly compared to what other areas received.
Today we have another flood watch issued. The difference between today and yesterday is that the models support this idea of widespread showers developing. A repeat performance will be on tap for Friday. Cooler daytime highs will accompany this unsettled weather. Showers may persist into the evening hours and many areas may wake up to rain tomorrow morning.  An umbrella will be a recommended accessory today and tomorrow.
FLOOD WATCH  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO  
334 AM MDT THU JUL 28 2022  
  
COZ003-008>010-012-013-017>023-UTZ022-028-029-282200-  
/O.CON.KGJT.FA.A.0004.220728T1600Z-220729T0400Z/  
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/  
ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS-CENTRAL COLORADO RIVER BASIN-GRAND AND  
BATTLEMENT MESAS-GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-  
WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS-FLAT TOPS-UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND  
DALLAS DIVIDE-NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN  
MOUNTAINS-PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER-FOUR CORNERS/UPPER  
DOLORES RIVER-ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-SOUTHEAST UTAH-  
LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS-CANYONLANDS/NATURAL BRIDGES-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF RIO BLANCO, EAGLE, EDWARDS, GLENWOOD   
SPRINGS, CARBONDALE, BASALT, SKYWAY, ASPEN, VAIL, SNOWMASS, CRESTED   
BUTTE, TAYLOR PARK, MARBLE, BUFORD, TRAPPERS LAKE, RIDGWAY, GLADE   
PARK, TELLURIDE, OURAY, LAKE CITY, SILVERTON, RICO, HESPERUS,   
GATEWAY, NUCLA, CORTEZ, DOVE CREEK, MANCOS, DURANGO, BAYFIELD,   
IGNACIO, PAGOSA SPRINGS, BLANDING, BLUFF, MEXICAN HAT, MONTICELLO,   
CANYONLANDS NATIONAL PARK, DEAD HORSE POINT STATE PARK, AND FRY   
CANYON  
334 AM MDT THU JUL 28 2022  
  
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH   
10 PM MDT THIS EVENING...  
  
* WHAT...FLASH FLOODING CAUSED BY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE,   
  ESPECIALLY ON BURN SCARS AND AREAS WITH ALREADY SATURATED SOIL.  
  
* WHERE...PORTIONS OF COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH, INCLUDING THE   
  FOLLOWING AREAS, IN COLORADO, ANIMAS RIVER BASIN, CENTRAL COLORADO   
  RIVER BASIN, FLAT TOPS, FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER, GORE AND   
  ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, GRAND AND BATTLEMENT   
  MESAS, NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS, PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES   
  RIVER, ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS, SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN, SOUTHWEST   
  SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS, UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE AND WEST   
  ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS. IN SOUTHEAST UTAH, CANYONLANDS/NATURAL   
  BRIDGES, LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST UTAH.  
  
* WHEN...FROM 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING.  
  
* IMPACTS...EXCESSIVE RUNOFF MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF RIVERS,   
  CREEKS, STREAMS, AND OTHER LOW-LYING AND FLOOD-PRONE LOCATIONS. IN   
  ADDITION, HEAVY RAINFALL OVER RECENT BURN SCARS SUCH AS THE   
  GRIZZLY CREEK FIRE, LAKE CHRISTINE FIRE, PINE GULCH FIRE, PACK   
  CREEK FIRE, ICE FIRE, 416 FIRE AND EAST CANYON FIRE BURN AREAS,   
  AMONG OTHER SMALLER, MORE RECENT BURN AREAS IN THE WATCH AREA.  
  
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...  
  - DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY  
    RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY  
    RAIN, FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE,  
    ESPECIALLY OVER RECENT BURN SCARS AND ALREADY SATURATED SOILS  
    FROM RECENT RAINFALL.  
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
  
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION   
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.  
  
Here is something we don’t often see–we made the excessive rainfall outlook category 3 (out of 4).
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Wednesday Afternoon Update

On By durangoweatherguy1 Comment
7/27/22 Wednesday 1:45 pm
Yesterday isolated storms developed in the afternoon, the Durango area was the big winner with amounts from 0.60 inches to over an inch. The coverage was not widespread and just a couple of miles out of town most areas got little to no precipitation.
As far as I know, storms have so far eluded most of the forecast area so far, we’ll see. As I mentioned this morning, the models were not overly optimistic about widespread showers developing. That is supposed to change tomorrow and Friday with widespread showers moving into the forecast area.
For the weekend, it still looks like scattered to widespread afternoon showers will occur. The Euro, Canadian and German models are showing up to 2 inches of rain by Monday morning across most of the forecast area. The GFS shows 1 to 2 inches and the blended models are right in the middle.
I will do an overnight model update Thursday morning early. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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Flood Watch

On By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment

7/27/22 Wednesday 6:30 am

The NWS radar is down again. This time through Tuesday, August 2nd. I think mainly because of that they have issued a Flood Watch for the forecast area. Because they can’t adequately track storms, they issued a Flood Watch. The weather models do not support this. However, the models do not do a great job at pinpointing mesoscale storm development. So while this may be a CYA issuance, all the conditions are ripe for potentially heavy rain somewhere in the forecast area.

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
211 AM MDT Wed Jul 27 2022

COZ018>023-UTZ022-028-029-280600-
/O.NEW.KGJT.FA.A.0003.220727T1800Z-220728T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains-Paradox
Valley/Lower Dolores River-Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas
River Basin-San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-La Sal and Abajo
Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges-
Including the cities of Telluride, Ouray, Lake City, Silverton,
Rico, Hesperus, Gateway, Nucla, Cortez, Dove Creek, Mancos, Durango,
Bayfield, Ignacio, Pagosa Springs, Blanding, Bluff, Mexican Hat,
Monticello, Canyonlands National Park, Dead Horse Point State Park,
and Fry Canyon
211 AM MDT Wed Jul 27 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT MDT
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible,
  especially on fire burn scars and areas with already saturated
  ground in the San Juan Mountains west through southeastern Utah.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest Colorado and southeast Utah,
  including the following areas, in southwest Colorado, Animas River
  Basin, Four Corners/Upper Dolores River, Northwest San Juan
  Mountains, Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River, San Juan River
  Basin and Southwest San Juan Mountains. In southeast Utah,
  Canyonlands/Natural Bridges, La Sal and Abajo Mountains and
  Southeast Utah.

* WHEN...From Noon MDT today through midnight MDT tonight.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. In
  addition, heavy rainfall over the Pack Creek Fire, Ice Fire, 416
  Fire and East Canyon Fire burn areas, among other smaller, more
  recent burn areas in the watch area. Residents and travelers near
  any of these burn areas should prepare for potential flood
  impacts. Be sure to stay up to date with information from local
  authorities.  Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.
  Low-water crossings may be flooded.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Heavy rain has fallen in these area over the past few days
    and deep monsoonal moisture is forecast to move to these
    areas today with showers and thunderstorms likely.

I will do a model update early this afternoon. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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A Wet End Of July And The Extended Outlook

On By durangoweatherguy1 Comment
7/26/22 Tuesday 5:45 am
I was among some of the frustrated out there who watched storms barely miss my neighborhood or deposit 11 drops of rain on my driveway. Until yesterday, when a nice cell set up and deposited about 0.60″ in my area. I got reports from several other areas of similar amounts, 1 location south of Purgatory picked up just over an inch.
Don’t worry so much about day-to-day, there are 6 days left of the month. The models have juiced up those remaining 6 days. They were waffling back and forth on the weekend, but at the moment they seem to be agreeing that the afternoon storms will continue Saturday, Sunday, and beyond. This will likely affect the Telluride 100, especially in the afternoon. More on that in a couple of days.
Here are the latest models runs showing the precipitation amounts between now and Monday morning August 1st.
NOAA NBM blended model
GFS
NOAA WPC blended model
Euro
Today is Tuesday so it is time to look at the extended runs of the Euro and GFS. They are both showing strong positive precipitation anomalies through August.
Here are the forecast amounts above average.
GFS through August 28th
Euro through August 31st
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More On The Bridge Tomorrow…

On By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment

― DURANGO BRIDGE REPAIR ALERT ―
July 25, 2022

 

Additional bridge repair work is needed on the US 160 bridge over the Animas River

Motorists will encounter lane shifts and traffic delays at US 160-US 550 intersection near the DoubleTree Hotel

DURANGO ― The Colorado Department of Transportation will perform additional repair work on the US Highway 160 bridge over the Animas River, located on the south side of the DoubleTree Hotel and just west of the US 160 and US 550 intersection in Durango. The work will take place tomorrow, Tuesday, July 26 from 9 a.m. to 3 p.m.

Traffic Impacts

Motorists will encounter both westbound and eastbound lane shifts and crews will attempt to keep traffic moving through the work zone. However, significant delays can be expected at the US 160 and US 550 intersection due to congestion caused by the limited lanes available. Travelers should allow themselves extra time. Motorists and pedestrians are asked to seek an alternate route, if possible. Motorists are urged to watch for workers and their equipment, slow down and drive with extreme caution.

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Sunday Morning Update

On By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment
7/24/22 Sunday 6 am
Not too much to talk about yet this morning. Dewpoints are on the rise and Precipitable Water is 150-170% of the climatological average for this time of year. This already sparked a few isolated showers overnight.
Showers will develop first in the higher terrain around midday. As the afternoon wears on widespread showers should “fill in the gaps” from north to south and west to east. It appears we will have a good chance of the showers extending into the evening in many areas resulting in cooler temperatures all week.  This routine looks like it will repeat itself several times in the upcoming days!
The Euro and NOAA’s high-resolution NBM blended model continues to point towards a wet end of July.
NBM through July 31st
Euro same time period
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Saturday Afternoon Update

On By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment
7/23/22 Saturday 1:30 pm
Things are still on track for widespread showers moving into the area late on Sunday. PWAT (precipitable water values) are currently at 120% above average. Those values are forecasted to surge to close to 200% of average in portions of the forecast area by Sunday evening and night. My gut tells me to expect more action in the evening than in the day through the early afternoon. We will see.
If even the lowest forecasts from the models verify for precipitation, most areas will finish July with monthly totals higher than the climatological average for July. I will take another look at August on Tuesday.
NOAA’s National Model Blend (NBM) is still very ambitious through the end of the month.
NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center blended model (WPC) only forecasts out through 180 hours. Here is its forecast through the end of the day Friday.
My next update will be out early on Sunday morning.
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Cooler And Wetter Conditions Next Week!

On By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment
7/22/22 Friday 7:15 am
Models continue to support the idea of a major pattern change returning widely scattered showers and cooler temperatures (day and night) next week.
Isolated to scattered showers developed yesterday throughout the forecast area. I expect the same thing to happen today and tomorrow. These storms are mostly convective-based and are hit or miss pop-up afternoon storms.
Late on Sunday, the monsoonal flow will return and the models show that showers will become widespread. The models show this pattern continuing through at least Friday. The models are in excellent agreement with the pattern change. The weekly and 10-day totals are impressive.
Euro forecast totals through Sunday afternoon July 31st
GFS forecast totals through Sunday night July 31st
Canadian forecast totals through Sunday afternoon July 31st

German forecast totals through Friday morning July 29th (max run duration of the German model is 180 hours)
NOAA National blend of models (NBM) through Sunday evening July 31st
I will be posting updates at least daily through the weekend and next week. I also will be covering the forecast for the Telluride 100 Mountain Bike Race. It is just a little too early to start on that.
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Commuting News

On By durangoweatherguy2 Comments

7/21/22 Thursday 5:20 pm

Courtesy CDOT

 

― DURANGO EMERGENCY BRIDGE REPAIR ALERT ―

July 21, 2022

CDOT to perform emergency bridge repair west of the US 160 and US 550 (Camino Del Rio) intersection

Motorists will encounter lane shifts and traffic delays on July 22 and July 23, 2022

DURANGO ― The Colorado Department of Transportation will be performing emergency bridge repair work on the US Highway 160 bridge located just south of the DoubleTree Hotel and just west of the US 160 and US 550 intersection in Durango. This emergency work will take place tomorrow, Friday, July 22, and possibly Saturday, July 23 from 6:30 a.m. to 6:30 p.m.

Traffic Impacts

Motorists will encounter both westbound and eastbound lane shifts and crews will attempt to keep traffic moving through the work zone. However, significant delays can be expected at the US 160 and US 550 intersection due to congestion caused by the limited lanes available. Travelers should allow themselves extra time. Motorists, as well as pedestrians, are asked to seek an alternate route, if possible. Motorists are urged to watch for workers and their equipment, slow down and drive with extreme caution.

Know Before You Go

Travelers are urged to “know before you go.” Gather information about weather forecasts, anticipated travel impacts, and current road conditions prior to hitting the road. CDOT resources include:

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