Mid To Long Term Outlook

On By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment
7/19/22 Tuesday 1:15 pm
Relief is in sight. But, for the next couple of days, most areas will have only a slight chance of a pop-up shower. Chances will be better in the high elevation areas. The best chances will be in eastern Hinsdale and western Mineral Counties along the divide.
The GFS  and the Euro are in pretty good agreement that widespread showers will move into the forecast area on Sunday. The Trend is visible on all models, including their ensemble families and the extended versions of the GFS and Euro models. Fingers crossed. A car wash may be in order…
The forecast totals beginning Sunday through Thursday already look impressive, and they would really be beneficial.
GFS
Canadian
Saving the best for last, here is the Euro.
The good news is the ensemble and extended models show the pattern continuing into August.
Here is the GFS extended model showing the positive precipitation anomaly (amount above average) between now and August 21st. This is the date limit of the GFS extended model.
Here is the Euro extended for the same criteria and the same time period.
Here is the Euro extended model from now through the end of August.
Positive anomalies are difficult to achieve during the rainiest month of the year!
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Short Term Update

On By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment
7/19/22 Tuesday 5:15 am
I considered combining the short, mid, and long-term updates together but decided not to for a couple of reasons. The mid and long-term update will be out later today and I will cover the weekend, the rest of the month, and August.
A few sneaky storms developed late Sunday and brought anywhere from a few hundredths to 0.60 inches of rain. The amounts varied quite a bit and were hyper local. One area would do pretty well, then a mile in any direction little or no rain fell. It shows how much of our monsoon season depends on the influence of other factors to really draw in the monsoonal flow like we saw a couple of weeks back.
For the short term, more of the same. Through Friday, I don’t expect a lot of activity, an occasional pop up shower (like Sunday night) is possible but highly unpredictable.
Models are indicating a possible change coming up for the weekend, but they have different ideas on when things will start. The GFS is quicker developing showers (as it always is) while the Canadian and Euro are mostly holding off until Sunday. The models are picking up on a low pressure system moving through the southwest which would direct that beneficial moisture into our area.
More on that in the mid and long term update. I will have that out this afternoon.
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Saturday Update (Hardrock 100 & Local)

On By durangoweatherguy2 Comments
7/16/22 Saturday 5:30 am
It has been fascinating watching the progress of the participants of the Hardrock 100. As of 4:45 am Saturday, the majority of the runners are between the 55-mile and 65-mile mark.. A large group is on Handies Peak. 3 have finished so far. 3 more should finish in the next 3 to 4 hours. If you want to check them out here is a link.
CAPE values will be high throughout the forecast area. The highest values will be west of where the runners are, but they will still be high in Hinsdale and San Juan County. As is usually the case, the best chance of storms developing will be between noon and 3 pm.
For the rest of us that are rooting for storms, despite high CAPE values, the best chances will be across the higher elevations of the north, as well as the eastern portions of the forecast area this afternoon.
Models are indicating a slightly better chance of scattered storms on Sunday. The models struggle with the track of the high pressure which is responsible for directing the moisture plume and the monsoonal flow across the southwest. It appears the high pressure is going to move west today and then wobble back east tomorrow which would be more favorable for the lower elevations.
The big difference between last month and this month is that there were more systems coming through the Pacific Northwest, and they dropped far enough south to grab ahold of the monsoonal flow. In the last week to 10 days, those systems are staying much further north closer to the Canadian border. As I said yesterday, I still like what I am seeing on the extended models and I will update the long-term forecast on Tuesday morning when I get the new data.
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Friday Afternoon Update

On By durangoweatherguy9 Comments

7/15/22 Friday 1:30 pm

I got this in my email today.

Comment or question: “I’ve noticed that it’s roughly 10 degrees hotter and much drier than both your forecast and weather dot com’s forecast. Would you be willing to address that in your next post? I feel like we’ve totally missed the mark on all forecasts and I’d like to know why, and also what to expect for the coming weeks.”

I copied this directly from my post on Tuesday. People can go back and check if they want.

“Showers were slightly more widespread yesterday than Sunday. A few areas mostly north of Coal Bank saw some decent showers on Sunday, yesterday the showers expanded a little further south into the central portions of the forecast area. More of the same for the next couple of days, expect the unexpected. Some of the models are even showing some snow at the 14,000-foot level for the next couple of afternoons.
Small thunderstorms will develop across the area due to daytime heating and monsoonal moisture. I know it sounds like an excuse but these Meso-Scale Convective Systems are very difficult to forecast in our area. They will be the rule for the next several days. The moisture is expected to increase as we go into the weekend.”
1) I pointed out that the small storms were difficult to predict on a daily basis and that they would be the rule for this week.
2) I never mentioned temperatures.
3) I said moisture would increase as we go into the weekend.
4) Immediately after that I went on to talk about the long-term outlook through August.
I can’t speak for “weather dot com”. But it looks like the only person who has “missed the mark” is the person who sent me that email. He wanted me to address it in my next post, so there you go…
I know my neighborhood has missed out on the isolated showers that have popped up in other locations. Most of the southern portions of the forecast area have had similarly rain-free days this week. I can’t technically refer to it as dry, because dewpoints have been running high all week.
The models are no longer focusing on as deep of push of moisture into the area over the weekend. That being said, the PWAT values will run from 120% to 160% of the statistical average which would keep rain and thunderstorms in the 40-50% category through the first couple of days next week. Basically, not enough to either count on it or rule it out.
I am not worried that some of us have missed a couple of afternoons of rain, and I don’t think we are done. Like I said on Tuesday, I expect July to finish strong and for August to be abundant.
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Hardrock 100 forecast (local forecast will be out this afternoon)

On By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment
7/15/22 Friday 5:20 am
(Photo from website)
The conditions look typical for those planning on running 100 miles on purpose starting this morning. One of the biggest concerns with this event is lightning. We gauge the lightning potential from the CAPE forecast. The CAPE values look particularly elevated over the next 24 hours.
Here is the CAPE  forecast from 6 am today until 6 am Saturday. Lightning/thunderstorms are generally possible when CAPE values surpass 500. Notice the elevated values this afternoon between Telluride and Ouray.
CAPE forecasts are not usually reliable more than 18 hours out, I will post the updated forecast tomorrow early.
Showers will be isolated across the route area this morning, becoming widespread by 1 to 2 pm. The focus for the precipitation will be across the western portions of the course where most will be. I will update the forecast tomorrow early, it looks like the showers are going to follow the participants to the eastern portions of the course tomorrow.
My local weekend forecast will be out this afternoon.
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Long Term Update

On By durangoweatherguy2 Comments
7/12/22 Tuesday 6:45 am
The key takeaway today is don’t worry. The extended models are in excellent agreement that our monsoon will continue and be bountiful. It is not the type of thing that you can gauge on a daily basis. I have relied on these long-term models for quite a while. They tend to underpromise and over-deliver. They are coded to do so. So when I see the GFS extended totals through August 14th versus the Euro extended totals through August 14th in great agreement, I can’t help but smile. There is so much negative news out there, you can easily find it, but you are not going to get it here.
Showers were slightly more widespread yesterday than Sunday. A few areas mostly north of Coal Bank saw some decent showers on Sunday, yesterday the showers expanded a little further south into the central portions of the forecast area. More of the same for the next couple of days, expect the unexpected. Some of the models are even showing some snow at the 14,000-foot level for the next couple of afternoons.
Small thunderstorms will develop across the area due to daytime heating and monsoonal moisture. I know it sounds like an excuse but these Meso-Scale Convective Systems are very difficult to forecast in our area. They will be the rule for the next several days. The moisture is expected to increase as we go into the weekend.
Back to the future. The future looks wet! I mentioned the extended-term model runs earlier. Let’s jump into that. The GFS has a “shorter” long-term outlook with its extended model and currently runs through August 14th. The Euro extended runs through August 25th. Here are their latest forecast precipitation totals.
GFS through August 14th
Euro through August 14th
Here are the positive anomalies (amounts above average) through August 14th
GFS
Euro
Here are the Euro’s totals through August 25.
Here are the positive anomalies from the Euro through August 25th.
Keeping in mind that August is our rainiest month of the year, these forecasts are significant!
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Afternoon Showers Return

On By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment
7/10/22 Sunday 4:45 am
In my last post, I mentioned that showers could return to the forecast area as early as Sunday or Monday afternoon. This does look to be the case, the models continue to show things falling back into place to slowly open back up the monsoon tap from the southwest.
For today and tomorrow, isolated to scattered storms will favor the higher elevations by midday and then move off the mountains to mid and lower elevation areas throughout the afternoon. Storm motion will be slow and erratic, so it is impossible to predict where the storms will set up and end up. Precipitable water values (PWAT) will climb to 140% to 160% of the climatological average (climo) for this date.
Showers will become more widespread on Tuesday and Wednesday as deeper moisture works into the forecast area. PWATs will jump to 200+% of climo. This pattern looks like it will continue for the foreseeable future.
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Transition Day

On By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment
7/7/22 Thursday 6:45 am
Sorry for missing my update yesterday afternoon, I had more on my plate than I expected. Showers were isolated yesterday but areas that got rain did well. On Tuesday showers were pretty widespread with many areas getting 0.50-1.00+ inches. A good start to July overall. We are going to hit the pause button for most areas on the rain as high pressure builds across the western US. Afternoon higher elevation showers can never be ruled out despite the high pressure.
This is not going to be a perma-dome of high pressure like we often see in the shoulder seasons, the next trough of low pressure is already on the map and it will get rid of the high pressure by mid-next week at the latest, maybe even on Sunday afternoon or Monday.
Seasonally warm high temperatures are going to accompany this high-pressure ridge. For those of you waiting for a dry period, this is your time. Again, can’t rule out a higher elevation-based thunderstorm, but the ridge will really build in starting tomorrow. If you love hot and dry enjoy the next few days before the monsoon returns.
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Moist Flow Returns

On By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment
7/5/22 Tuesday 7:45 am
But will it rain? Models are very mixed when it comes to precipitation reaching the ground. For example, check out the Euro versus the GFS. These are 48-hour forecast totals.
Euro
GFS
The Canadian looks similar to the GFS, and the German looks similar to the Euro. PWAT (precipitable water values) are starting off today at 170% of climo (climatological average). These values will be approaching 200% of average as the day wears on. Therefore, I would say scattered to widespread showers seem like a good bet throughout most of the forecast area today. Scattered to isolated showers could very well develop again on Wednesday before warm dry air starts to take over the region late this week into the weekend. More on that tomorrow and Thursday.
The Euro extended model came out last night and it shows the above-average precipitation continuing across the forecast area this summer. It does show the dry air taking over by the weekend but the favorable flow will return sometime next week and we will go right back into the wet pattern.
Here are the positive precipitation anomalies for the next 30 days through August 4th. The amounts shown are not totals, they are the amounts above (or below) average for the period.
Here are the anomalies through August 11th, indicating a wet start to August for the southern portions of the forecast area.
My next update will be Wednesday afternoon and I will talk more about the drier weather that is on the way.
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Playing Catch-Up

On By durangoweatherguy1 Comment
7/3/22 Sunday 8:10 am
I am feeling better, but I am not 100%  I still have not worked out, maybe tomorrow. There are a lot of unexpected cobwebs with this crap. I am going to leave it at that.
I am going to do my best to jump right back into the current and future weather. I had plans for a June recap, but rather than focus my energy on what happened I am going to try to focus on what’s next. Late Monday/Tuesday morning the new long-term Euro will be out so I can get a good look into mid-August to see what is in store for us. Both the Euro 46 day and the Euro seasonal were instrumental in my early prediction of an above-average monsoon season months ago.
At least at my house, the rain overnight and this morning were very tranquil. It is sleeping rain in my book. The cool temps and humidity were quite refreshing. Most of the models show the showers continuing scattered at times throughout the day.
Here are the latest runs showing the totals for the next 24 hours (ending Monday 6 am).
GFS
Euro
Canadian
German
Pretty good consistency overall, the German has a bit loftier expectations. Given the precipitable water values (PWAT) now and throughout the day, I would not be dismissing higher totals than what is currently being forecasted.
Remember, PWAT is the amount of precipitation available to fall in a virtual column if it fell all at once. In a nutshell, look at the atmosphere like a sponge, and you wrang all of the moisture out of the sponge here is how much rain would be available to fall.
Here is the PWAT forecast through Monday at 6 am.
These values represent 170% to 200+% of the climatological average for today.
On Monday, showers should be more isolated in nature. Tuesday it looks like we will return to more widespread showers. I don’t want to get too far ahead of myself right now, but some models are suggesting that we will be transitioning into a slightly drier pattern by late next week. I know there are some folks who really hope this will happen. No promises, but I am keeping my eye on it.
The radar is back as I am sure many of you noticed. There were no upgrades that would benefit our area. I was emailing back and forth with a contact at NWS Grand Junction a while back. They are looking forward to our new radar as much as we are. To answer your question, I do not have any information as to the latest projected date it will be up and running, but I will email and get an update and let everyone know this week.
Thanks for all of the nice emails over the last week, and as always, thanks for following and supporting the site!

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