Pattern Change Next Weekend?

On October 17, 2022 By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment

10/17/22 Monday 6:30 am

Details of the contest this year have only been viewed 900 times so far, if you are interested in participating and want more details click here: 2022 Contest Overview–The Largest Ever

Wide-spread showers and thunderstorms eventually developed throughout the forecast area. Liquid precipitation totals ranged from 0.10 inches to over 1.00 inches. Overall, the models under-forecasted the event and were incorrect with the strict southern track.

For today, the models are expecting showers to re-develop this afternoon, but the showers should be more isolated to scattered. We’ll see, there may be enough residual moisture to spark some convection in the areas that had the heaviest precipitation yesterday.

Starting tomorrow, a ridge of high pressure should build back over the forecast area until Saturday. Things could get interesting late Saturday through Monday morning or so. To make matters more interesting, the models are showing snow levels dropping down to around the 7,000 level (possibly slightly lower) near the end of the event. They are also showing the possibility of a second storm arriving in the middle of next week.

So I might as well get on board the snow model rollercoaster because I am sure every other forecaster will do so this week. Just remember things can change, and everything has to come together just right for good storms to hit us.

With all of that being said, it is fun to start tracking the totals when all of the models are in agreement this early. So here is a first look at the totals (before melting) through Wednesday.

GFS

Euro

Canadian

Stay tuned, I will be tracking the potential storms all week!

My next update will be on Tuesday. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

Click here to donate for a chance to win

Click here to submit a weather report or question

Send your weather videos to: durangoweatherguy@gmail.com

Sunday Showers

On October 16, 2022 By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment

10/16/22 Sunday 7:15 am

First of all, thanks to those who have already participated in this year’s contest. On Friday and Saturday, I announced the details of my latest contest. This year’s contest is both larger and shorter than 2021 and 2020. People are busy this time of year, and my web traffic is always down until the first major snow. So far, the contest details have only been viewed a little over 500 times. Given the fact that I have over 16,000 followers, I am going to continue to provide links to it in my updates. 2022 Contest Overview–The Largest Ever

Sunday Update

In the past, I mentioned a couple of dates I was keeping my eyes on. The first was today and tomorrow. The time has arrived and for the last couple of days, I have said that this is not going to be the pattern change that the models were advertising a couple of weeks ago.

The closed low that had been anchored over southern California is moving east. Clouds have moved over the forecast area, resulting in weak radiational cooling overnight. Temperatures throughout SW Colorado are 10-15 degrees warmer this morning than they were 24 hours ago. Even Silverton is sitting at a balmy 28 degrees after hitting a frosty 15 degrees Saturday morning!

This temporary pattern disruption, as I referred to it yesterday, will be history by late Monday. A few folks in the southern portions of the forecast area (generally south of 160) will get a little rain. The best chances for more meaningful precipitation will fall over New Mexico. On Tuesday, a high-pressure ridge will pop up over us and much of the western US where it will remain throughout the week–boring…

The next date I talked about was around October 23rd. There should be a good chance for a combination of southwest moisture and a cold front dropping down from the northwest. It is the setup for what we usually experience for the first major snowstorm of the year to affect the mountains and mid-elevation areas.

This one looks great on paper, all of the elements that we need are going to be present. That being said, the track has to be perfect for things to line up just right. The ingredients must arrive at the proper times as well. There is so much that can go wrong, so I am not getting my hopes up just yet. For the most part, the consistency among the models has been good. It is something I will be analyzing all week, so stay tuned.

Thanks for following and supporting the site!

Click here to donate for a chance to win

Click here to submit a weather report or question

Send your weather videos to: durangoweatherguy@gmail.com

Weekend Update

On October 15, 2022 By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment

10/15/22 Saturday 7 am

Scattered showers are expected to develop tomorrow as a closed area of low pressure (finally) moves east from southern California into central Arizona and New Mexico. At the moment, it looks like showers will favor the southern portions of the forecast area. I am not expecting heavy precipitation at this time, but we will look at it again in another 24 hours.

Here are the maps in motion in this case the Euro model. The Euro model this morning shows a nice balance between the GFS model which shows the heaviest precipitation and the Canadian model which shows the least precipitation.

This is from 6 am Sunday through 6 am Monday in 3-hour increments.

Most of today should be similar to yesterday, tomorrow will be cooler.

Unless I see something interesting in the later day model runs, my next update will be on Sunday morning. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

Click here to donate for a chance to win

Click here to submit a weather report or question

Send your weather videos to: durangoweatherguy@gmail.com

2022 Contest Overview–The Largest Ever

On October 15, 2022 By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment

I had several emails in the spring asking me if I was going to sponsor another contest this year. I am holding a contest this year, I just wanted to hold off until this fall to do so.

If you are new to the site this is something I did in the spring of 2020 and 2021. This year is going to be the biggest ever. There is going to be more prize money than in the previous two contests. I am also going to match the prize money by donating $2000 to local charities in SW Colorado. I am still researching charities but they will be various food banks and charities that benefit children during the holidays. If you donated on September 1st or later you are already in. Active monthly donors at the time of the drawing are also eligible. The cash drawings will be on Friday, December 9th. The charitable contributions will be made on or before December 6th. I will announce all of the prize winners after I contact them.

Merchants are welcome to donate goods or services. I am not going actively solicit any businesses this year, it has been a difficult year for many so I do not want to put any pressure on anyone.

$2000 in cash prizes will be distributed as follows: Two $25o prizes, four $150 prizes, four $100 prizes, four $75 prizes, and four $50 prizes. Prizes will be distributed the same way in which the entries were made. The link at the bottom is for Paypal and credit/debit cards. If you prefer to send a check or use Venmo, click the blue link to contact me for that information.

Thanks for following and supporting the site!

Click here to donate for a chance to win

Click here to submit a weather report or question

Send your weather videos to: durangoweatherguy@gmail.com

Temporary Pattern Disruption Plus Details Of This Years Contest

On October 14, 2022 By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment

Friday 10/14/22 7:30 am

I am not going to call it a pattern change because it will be short-lived. It looks like a closed low from Southern California will move into northern New Mexico over the weekend. Models are advertising moisture moving into the forecast area on Sunday, triggering scattered showers. Some of the residual moisture may help isolated showers develop Monday afternoon. I am 50/50 on the whole scenario because the models have been flopping back and forth on their solutions. I would say that the best chances of precipitation would fall over the southern portions of the forecast area on Sunday, along with the higher terrain. The southern portions are closer to the track of the low pressure, and as always, the best orographic lift will occur in the higher elevations.

The best chance of more widespread winter weather looks like it would be possible after 10/22. A lot can happen between now and then so I have very low confidence in that happening, but it is something I am watching. The new Euro weekly came out last night. I only cover the Monday night run and I will cover that on Tuesday, very little has changed. If you missed that update you can read it here Tuesday Update–Extended Outlook

On a couple of other notes, I did sell my snowblower, within hours of posting it. Thanks to everyone who responded and those who made recommendations for my new purchase.

The other thing I wanted to mention was that I am holding a contest this year. If you are new to site this is something I did in 2020 and 2021. This year is going to be the biggest ever. There is going to be more prize money than in the previous two contests. I am also going to match the prize money with donations to local charities in SW Colorado. If you donated on September 1st or later you are already in. Active monthly donors at the time of the drawing are also eligible. The cash drawings will be on Friday, December 9th. The charitable contributions will be made on or before December 7th.

Merchants are welcome to donate goods or services, although I am not going actively solicit anyone this year, it has been a difficult year for many so I do not want to put any pressure on anyone.

$2000 in cash prizes will be distributed as follows: Two $25o prizes, four $150 prizes, four $100 prizes, four $75 prizes, and four $50 prizes. I am still researching charities but they will be various food banks and charities that benefit children during the holidays.

Thanks for following and supporting the site!

Click here to donate for a chance to win

Click here to submit a weather report or question

Send your weather videos to: durangoweatherguy@gmail.com

Snow Blower For Sale

On October 11, 2022October 12, 2022 By durangoweatherguy2 Comments

Ryobi 21-inch Single Stage Snow Blower and 2 Ryobi 40 v rechargeable batteries.

I used it one season, it works very well in snow up to about 10 inches. I need to get something self-propelled.

Here is a link to it from the Home Depot website.

Home Depot Ryobi Snowblower

I bought it at Home Depot in November 2021, I am asking $500 or best offer.

Email me at jgivenscbr@gmail if you are interested.

Tuesday Update–Extended Outlook

On October 11, 2022 By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment

10/11/22 Tuesday 7 am

Temperatures are approaching the overnight minimum readings. There are a lot of low-30s to mid-30s across the forecast area. The lowest I see is 29 in Vallecito and 23 in Silverton. I do not expect overnight lows to moderate anytime in the foreseeable future.

Showers will be very isolated today, favoring the highest terrain. The models have not yet come to an agreement on exactly how long the dry weather will last but they do show a flip to wetter unsettled conditions for the last 7 to 12 days of the month.

The Euro extended outlook agrees and is showing slightly cooler than average temperatures through November 24th. It shows average precipitation through November 11th and well above average precipitation from November 11th through November 24th!

Here are the temperature anomalies between now and November 24th

Here are the precipitation anomalies through November 24th

Here is the total snowfall before melting through November 24th

Here are “the city charts”. This table shows every ensemble member of the European family and what it is predicting for snow. The date progresses from left to right up to November 24th. The colors correspond to the total amount of snow forecasted over the period. An average of all of the members (mean) is calculated which is what you see in the above chart. The raw data is in the city charts below. The forecasts are all for the airports of these cities

Cortez (CEZ)

Durango (DRO)

Pagosa (Stevens Field)

Telluride (TEX)

Thanks for following and supporting the site!

Click here to donate

Click here to submit a weather report or question

Send your weather videos to: durangoweatherguy@gmail.com

Monday Update–Colder Overnight Lows

On October 10, 2022 By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment

10/10/22 Monday 12:15 pm

More of the same today, with isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. On Tuesday, there will be a slight chance of afternoon showers. After Tuesday, we will begin an extended period of dry weather. This could last 5 to 7 days or maybe even longer, the models agree on that. They also agree that the second half of the month will be a more active period of rain and snow (depending on the elevation). It also appears we may see our first true winter storm for the mountains and some of the mid-elevation areas before the end of October. More on that tomorrow in my extended outlook

As I mentioned yesterday, overnight lows are going to drop a little lower over the next couple of nights. Wednesday and Thursday morning lows should approach the low to mid-30s in the lower elevations with upper 20s to low 30s in the mid-elevations.

When it comes to temperature forecasts I have found the European model to be the most accurate.

Here is the overnight low forecast for Tuesday morning from the last two runs of the European model

Overnight run

Latest run

Very consistent run to run. If freezing temps will affect your outdoor livelihood negatively take precautions.

My next update will be on Tuesday. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

Click here to donate

Click here to submit a weather report or question

Send your weather videos to: durangoweatherguy@gmail.com

Pattern Change Coming Up

On October 9, 2022 By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment

10/9/22 Sunday 7 am

Yesterday, showers and thunderstorms developed in the afternoon. 0.10 to 0.40 inches were common in the areas that did see rain. I saw a large anomaly of 0.96 inches register north of Gem Village. For today and Monday expect isolated showers and storms to develop once again.

Usually, when I have the words Pattern Change in one of my updates it means wetter weather is on the way. That is not going to be the case this week. For the last couple of days, all models have agreed that drier weather is coming. This change will come either Tuesday or Wednesday and may last for 5 to 7 days. We have not had a completely dry forecast lasting that long since early June.

With drier weather, I am confident freezing temperatures will occur in the mid-elevations this week. It is likely we will see overnight lows flirt with freezing temperatures in the lower elevations. North Vallecito and Lemon hit 32 yesterday morning and again this morning. In and around Purgatory temps are hovering at or just above freezing. Rico is 30 and Silverton hit 24 again this morning.

Daytime highs today and Monday should remain slightly below normal today and tomorrow but because of the drier weather start trending above average by Tuesday or Wednesday. So dry with cool nights and warmer than average should begin Tuesday or Wednesday. This pattern should stick around through most of the weekend, but wetter conditions will return around 10/17.

My next update will be on Monday. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

Click here to donate

Click here to submit a weather report or question

Send your weather videos to: durangoweatherguy@gmail.com

Friday Morning Update

On October 7, 2022 By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment

10/7/22 Friday 5:15 am

More of the same for the next couple of days, probably longer. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms have been the pattern much of the week. Yesterday’s showers were much more isolated than Wednesday’s. Today and tomorrow we may see a slight uptick in activity. I’ll take this over a bone-dry boring October every time.

The biggest change since my last update is that the models have lost all consensus in regards to mid-next week and next weekend. When I throw out the deterministic models and invite in the ensemble members of the Canadian, GFS, and European models, there is a better consensus. They basically show more of what we have been experiencing lately, with perhaps a brief intrusion of some cooler air by mid-week.

The Euro extended model came out last night and it now shows a positive precipitation anomaly (above average precipitation) from now through the end of November. I will post a follow-up on that on Tuesday’s Extended Outlook next week.

I am still monitoring the models for freezing temps in the lower elevations. I assume everyone in the mid-elevation areas knows that freezing temps could occur at any time at this point. For the lower elevations, I expect freezing temps within the next 10 days or so, I will be more specific in my timing as we get closer.

My next update will be Sunday morning. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

Click here to donate

Click here to submit a weather report or question

Send your weather videos to: durangoweatherguy@gmail.com